Hope for the 2023 freight recession

Challenges of 2023

1️⃣ Freight Market Outlook: Analysts fear that if freight rates do not bounce back soon, the industry will continue to face significant difficulties. For instance, companies like JB Hunt and Convoy have both battled with disappointing earnings and have called a quits due to bankruptcy—which are seen as a reflection of the economic slowdown causing this freight recession​​.

2️⃣ Industry Performance: The American Trucking Association's index for trucked goods has hit its lowest point since August 2021, indicating a severe recession in freight transportation. This decline, along with reduced diesel fuel prices, highlights the industry's struggles.

3️⃣ Commodity Prices: The freight recession is impacting commodity prices, including diesel, a key industrial fuel, which has seen a significant decrease. Indicating the recession's effects extend beyond just the trucking industry.

4️⃣ Overstocking Issue: Excess inventory and full warehouses contribute to the freight recession. While general merchandise stores are reducing stock, wholesalers in furniture, home furnishing, household appliances, and electrical goods still have significant inventory.

5️⃣ Restocking Process: Even though companies are reducing their inventory, there is a decrease in the demand for products and services. As a result, there hasn’t been noticeable increase in restocking for peak season throughout August and October leading up to the holidays.

There’s still hope

Although our current situation is difficult, it is not unprecedented. For decades, history has shown us that the trucking industry has successfully weathered other storms similar to these. In that, the supply chain has resilience and adaptability in the face of adversity.

A freight recession doesn't have to mean the end of a company. Instead, we can use these challenging times to reevaluate our business strategies and prepare for future growth.

While, its effects are undeniably far-reaching, bleeding into the economy, the focus needs to be on striking a balance between managing immediate costs and preparing for future growth opportunities. This dual strategy ensures that the industry can mitigate the immediate impacts of the recession while positioning itself for success when the market recovers.

⚡ Level up ⚡

🕵️‍♂️ Regularly checking on expenses and revenue mitigates surprises.

🫱🏾‍🫲🏻 Don’t be afraid to negotiate as it can lead to new favorable terms and improve margins.

👥 Diversifying your customers base provides stable sources of revenue.

🛤 Seek new opportunities, keep expenses low, and maintain a positive outlook.

🥇 By remaining positive and optimistic, you can inspire confidence and build trust, which are critical to your success.

Trivia segment

Sometimes we know less than what we think. Trivia is one of the funnest ways to exercise our brain and expand our knowledge. See what you know this week!

1. What are analysts saying triggered the 2023 recession?

2. What is the highest cost of diesel in American history?

3. When the worldwide collapse of oil at the end of 2014 caused a freight recession, how long did it last?

4. When is the 2023 freight recession expected to let up?

5. (T/F) The freight industry has experienced twice as many recessions since 1972.

6. (T/F) The Russia-Ukraine war has impacted America’s oil prices.

🫣 Scroll to the bottom to check your answers!

Trivia Answers

1. The COVID-19 pandemic trucking boom

2. $5.72

3. 18 months

4. Q2 of 2024

5. True

6. True